Monthly Archives: January 2015

Gold

An explanation on the Gold’s quarterly-chart, since 1975 :

” The essential underlying tendency of the wave principle is that action in the same direction as    the one larger trend develops in five waves, while reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves, at all degrees of trend.”

In accordance with the concept of the Elliott Wave Principle :

On the quarterly-chart frame, Gold completed an impulsive five-wave sequence up as a possible third wave of the cycle degree, in summer 2011. Since then, Gold is likely to correct in a three-waves sequence(or a variation) as a possible fourth-wave.

The ongoing five-wave sequence down, may be just as initial subsequent of the great correction of the same cycle degree. It could be considered as the wave A of the primary degree.

How far down can the ongoing Gold’s bear market be expected to go?

” The primary guideline is that corrections, especially when they themselves are fourth waves, tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.”

Based on the guideline of the Elliott Wave Principle; Gold tend to develop its following wave sequences on the down trend persistently, and it is expected ultimately retrace to the span of travel area of the preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree, around the 398 area.

Gold - Quarterly

An explanation on Copper’s quarterly-chart, since 1972 :

” The essential underlying tendency of the wave principle is that action in the same direction as the one larger trend develops in five waves, while reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves, at all degrees of trend.”

In accordance with the concept of the Elliott Wave Principle :

On the quarterly-chart frame, Copper completed an impulsive five-wave sequence up as a possible third wave of the cycle degree, in spring 2008. Since then, Copper is likely to correct in a three-waves sequence(or a variation) as a possible fourth-wave.

“Quite often, when a large correction begins with a simple structure as first wave, the following waves will stretch out into a more intricately subdivided corrective form to achieve a type of alternation.”

Accordingly, for the subsequents of the overall corrective sequence; it would suggest that, the sharp simple structure fall could be labeled as the wave A(circled), the simple three-waves rise could be wave (A) of an ongoing wave B(circled), and then an impulsive wave C(circled) decline which would be yet more complex is likely ahead.

How far down can the ongoing Copper’s bear market be expected to go?

” The primary guideline is that corrections, especially when they themselves are fourth waves, tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.”

Based on the guideline of the Elliott Wave Principle, Copper tend to develop its following wave sequences on the down trend persistently, and it is expected ultimately retrace to the span of travel area of the preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree, around the 86.60 level.

The equilibrium area on the previous fourth-wave is a common target after five-wave rallies, so Copper on the expected alternate counts for its corrective sequence, may eventually work its way down to expected target.

Copper - Quarterly

EURUSD

In my view on the weekly chart, a fine (A – Triangle B – C) formation is likely completing.

Currently, the last subsequent of the pattern is in progress which could be first wave of wave C(circled).

A Bullish Alternate Count:

The extended fifth wave of wave C(circled) is likely completing. In which case, the Fibo-target for the terminus point of the pattern, as well establishes on equality ratio with the wave C(circled) at 1.02830 level.

EURUSD - Weekly

Silver

In a bearish view on the daily chart, Silver may be completing the first cycle(waves 1 and 2) of the current decline as the wave (5). Hence, second cycle in the same direction, and decline wave 3 will likely ahead.

The expected Fibo-targets for the corrective wave 2, could be in range of the 18.71 – 18.86, where there are the cluster of fibonacci expansion and retracement levels:

Wave 2 = 0.618 time of Wave 1  at 18.86                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Wave c(circled) = Wave a(circled)  at 18.71

A bullish alternate count:

The wave (5) has been completed at 14.15 level, and the overall five-waves sequence from peak at 50.97 to low at 14.15 is likely correcting.

Silver - Daily

In my view on the weekly chart, TEPIX completed an impulsive five-wave sequence up at 8972 in January 2014. Over the past 13 months, it is likely to correct in a three-wave sequence as a possible fourth wave which is likely completing.

A description on the subsequent of the corrective wave (4) :

An impulsive five-waves down as wave A, a three-waves zigzag up as wave B, and recent impulsive move down as wave C. Hence the overall sequence as the wave (4) is probably corrective.

The previous fourth-wave range is a common target after five-wave rallies, So TEPIX may eventually work its way down to the 6487-5743 area.

The expected fibo-targets for the corrective wave (4) :

6487, as an initial target could be considered. Just at the current level where

wave C = 0.618 wave A, and wave (4) has retraced 0.382 percent of wave (3).

5743, as the ultimate target where will establish equality ratio between the sub-waves A and C, near the retracement level 0.50 percent of wave (3).

TEPIX - Weekly