Monthly Archives: January 2015

EURUSD

In my view on the weekly chart, a fine (A – Triangle B – C) formation is likely completing.

Currently, the last subsequent of the pattern is in progress which could be first wave of wave C(circled).

A Bullish Alternate Count:

The extended fifth wave of wave C(circled) is likely completing. In which case, the Fibo-target for the terminus point of the pattern, as well establishes on equality ratio with the wave C(circled) at 1.02830 level.

EURUSD - Weekly

Silver

In a bearish view on the daily chart, Silver may be completing the first cycle(waves 1 and 2) of the current decline as the wave (5). Hence, second cycle in the same direction, and decline wave 3 will likely ahead.

The expected Fibo-targets for the corrective wave 2, could be in range of the 18.71 – 18.86, where there are the cluster of fibonacci expansion and retracement levels:

Wave 2 = 0.618 time of Wave 1  at 18.86                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Wave c(circled) = Wave a(circled)  at 18.71

A bullish alternate count:

The wave (5) has been completed at 14.15 level, and the overall five-waves sequence from peak at 50.97 to low at 14.15 is likely correcting.

Silver - Daily

In my view on the weekly chart, TEPIX completed an impulsive five-wave sequence up at 8972 in January 2014. Over the past 13 months, it is likely to correct in a three-wave sequence as a possible fourth wave which is likely completing.

A description on the subsequent of the corrective wave (4) :

An impulsive five-waves down as wave A, a three-waves zigzag up as wave B, and recent impulsive move down as wave C. Hence the overall sequence as the wave (4) is probably corrective.

The previous fourth-wave range is a common target after five-wave rallies, So TEPIX may eventually work its way down to the 6487-5743 area.

The expected fibo-targets for the corrective wave (4) :

6487, as an initial target could be considered. Just at the current level where

wave C = 0.618 wave A, and wave (4) has retraced 0.382 percent of wave (3).

5743, as the ultimate target where will establish equality ratio between the sub-waves A and C, near the retracement level 0.50 percent of wave (3).

TEPIX - Weekly

After the wave (4) triangle, a five-waves motive sequence down and a three-waves correction up, could be considered as a complete cycle consisting of eight waves which could be labeled the waves 1 and 2.

And based on the Elliott Wave Principle:

” The essential underlying tendency of the wave principle is that action in the same direction as the one larger trend develops in five waves, while reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves, at all degrees of trend.”

On this view, would suggest the downward trend tends to continue, and the next decline as the third wave of wave (5) will likely ahead.

Silver - Daily

Crude Oil

In my view on the quarterly chart, Crude Oil completed five-wave sequence up, at 147.27 peak in July 2008. Over the past 8 years, Crude Oil is likely to correct in the segment of a three-wave sequence which may be a  A-B-C formation(of circled degree).

“Quiet often, when a large correction beings with a simple structure as first wave, the following waves will stretch out into a more intricately subdivided corrective form to achieve a type of alternation.”      Elliott Wave Principle

Based on the guide line, As a description on the subsequent of the overall corrective portion, would suggest :

The sharp simple structure fall is likely the wave A(circled), the rise could be wave (A) of wave B(circled) zigzag/triangle possibilities in progress, and then wave C(circled) decline which would be yet more complex ahead.

The span of travel of the previous fourth-wave of one lesser degree is a common target after five-waves rallies, Hence Crude Oil on both the alternatives may eventually work its way down to the 19.40 level, over the coming years ahead.

Crude Oil - Quarterly-T

Crude Oil - Quarterly-Z