A More Bearish View On The Oil’s Bear Market :
According to the alternated view on Crude Oil, the extended Intermediate wave (3) would likely be followed by retrace up in wave (4) then ultimate decline in wave (5) of its same degree, to be traced out a five-wave structure as the Primary-degree wave ((C)).
Bullish Outlook :
In the Monthly frame, Crude Oil could have completed Intermediate wave (B) at the recent low of 37.75, in an A-B-C three-wave. The Intermediate wave (C), when it start to advance, will carry the price toward the 88.64 level or possibly above 114.83.
Based upon the sideways outlook in medium term, after the sharp decline in Primary wave A(circle) (since July 2008), developing the Primary wave B(circle) as a “flat” or “triangle” correction is expected, over the coming years.
In this Crude’s log scale monthly frame, the wave counts interpret developing the waves of Intermediate degree in several years sideways formation, as the Primary wave B(circle) underway.
In an immediate bearish view based upon this interpretation, the decline of Intermediate wave (B) still remains in progress, towards the recent low at $42.03, in anticipation of a final decline which will terminate the ongoing wave (B).
Uptrend Expected To Continue :
On this Crude Oil’s monthly frame, the wave counts interpret developing the Intermediate waves in several years sideways formation, as the Primary wave B(circle) underway.
Based upon this interpretation, the ongoing Intermediate wave (C) will continue to rise, possibly through the determinate objective at $92.92, where the wave (C) equals 0.618 times the length of the wave (A) – a common relationship between the same direction waves in a triangle formation.
After an impulsive five-wave sequence up of the cycle degree in July 2008 , Crude Oil is likely to correct in a three-waves sequence(or a variation).
An overview on the ongoing Crude Oil’s bear market :
“Quite often, when a large correction begins with a simple structure as first wave, the following waves will stretch out into a more intricately subdivided corrective form to achieve a type of alternation.”
Accordingly, for the subsequents of the overall corrective sequence; it would suggest that, the sharp simple structure fall could be labeled as the wave A(circled), the simple rise could be wave (A) of a variation of the wave B(circled) which is likely in progress, and then wave C(circled) decline which would be yet more complex is ahead.
How far down can the ongoing Crude Oil’s bear market be expected to go?
” The primary guideline is that corrections, especially when they themselves are fourth waves, tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.”
Based on the guideline of the Elliott Wave Principle; In the coming years, Crude Oil tend to develop its following wave sequences on the down trend persistently, and it is expected ultimately retrace to the span of travel area of the preceding the possible triangle fourth-wave of one lesser degree, around the 19.40 area.