Category Archives: Crude Oil – Quarterly

Crude Oil

Bullish View :

As shown on the quarterly chart below, Oil could have started its countertrend rally in Intermediate wave (C) of a flat correction as Primary wave ((B)) since the February low (26.05).

The medium-term rally will carry the price above 103.42 likely in 2 or 3 years ahead.

Crude Oil - Quarterly

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Crude Oil

Oil’s Bear Market In The Long-term :

Based upon the alternate count shown on this quarterly frame, it is expected the Crude Oil’s bear market, that started at the $147.27 high on July 2008, will continue to develop its following sequences of the Primary degree in several years to come.

Crude Oil - Quarterly

Crude Oil

An explanation on the Crude Oil’s quarterly-chart, since 1983 :

” The essential underlying tendency of the wave principle is that action in the same direction as the one larger trend develops in five waves, while reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves, at all degrees of trend.”

In accordance with the concept of the Elliott Wave Principle :

On the quarterly-chart frame, Crude Oil completed an impulsive five-wave sequence up at 147.27 peak, in summer 2008. Since then, over the past 8 years Crude Oil is likely to correct in a three-waves sequence(or a variation) as a possible fourth-wave.

“Quite often, when a large correction begins with a simple structure as first wave, the following waves will stretch out into a more intricately subdivided corrective form to achieve a type of alternation.”

Accordingly, for the subsequents of the overall corrective sequence; it would suggest that, the sharp simple structure fall could be labeled as the wave A(circled), the simple rise could be wave (A) of a variation of the wave B(circled) which is likely in progress, and then wave C(circled) decline which would be yet more complex is ahead.

How far down can the ongoing Crude Oil’s bear market be expected to go?

” The primary guideline is that corrections, especially when they themselves are fourth waves, tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.”

Based on the guideline of the Elliott Wave Principle; In the coming years, Crude Oil tend to develop its following wave sequences on the down trend persistently, and it is expected ultimately retrace to the span of travel area of the preceding the possible triangle fourth-wave of one lesser degree, around the 19.40 area.

Crude Oil - Quarterly

Crude Oil

In my view on the quarterly chart, Crude Oil completed five-wave sequence up, at 147.27 peak in July 2008. Over the past 8 years, Crude Oil is likely to correct in the segment of a three-wave sequence which may be a  A-B-C formation(of circled degree).

“Quiet often, when a large correction beings with a simple structure as first wave, the following waves will stretch out into a more intricately subdivided corrective form to achieve a type of alternation.”      Elliott Wave Principle

Based on the guide line, As a description on the subsequent of the overall corrective portion, would suggest :

The sharp simple structure fall is likely the wave A(circled), the rise could be wave (A) of wave B(circled) zigzag/triangle possibilities in progress, and then wave C(circled) decline which would be yet more complex ahead.

The span of travel of the previous fourth-wave of one lesser degree is a common target after five-waves rallies, Hence Crude Oil on both the alternatives may eventually work its way down to the 19.40 level, over the coming years ahead.

Crude Oil - Quarterly-T

Crude Oil - Quarterly-Z