As shown on the chart, Crude has declined – exceeding the expectations – for straight weeks. But expect more decline, after a recovery, to complete the wave structure in five waves as Minute wave v (circle).
Note : The ultimate target will be determined after a correction of Minuette degree.
The Crude’s current decline indicates that based upon this weekly alternate count, a Minute fifth wave remains likely in progress before the Minor wave C of Intermediate wave (B) terminates.
The bearish outlook is through under the recent lows at $41.58, where fifth and first Minute waves of the wave C are equal.
Two alternate counts on these log scale weekly-frames :
- The bullish outlook in anticipated Intermediate wave (C) underway, while the Oil’s price holds above the 42.03 low, through the 92.94 area.
- The continuing bearish outlook on Intermediate wave (B) still underway, in anticipation of the Minute fifth wave ahead of Minor wave C, which remains in progress.
In a bullish alternate view on the weekly chart frame, it appears that the A – Triangle B – C formation as a possible wave (B) of B(circled), could be completed.
The expected fibo-expansion target for the wave C, could be on the last low at 43.20 where could be established ratio of 1.618 with wave A of the A – Triangle B – C formation.
Note : The internals of the wave B exceeded the limits of a triangle in its third wave. However, I currently prefer to treat the pattern as a triangle, because it is a neat solution for counting the sequence of one larger degree.