Sideways Outlook :
Crude Oil has been moving in sideways during the September. An upward push will morph the advance since the August low into three waves, that will lead to unfold Minuette- degree three waves in sideways, as the Minute fourth-wave which remains in progress.
A decline exceeding the 37.75, the August 24 spike low, would indicate an attempt at achieving a significant extreme. (Bearish outlook on the 2nd chart)
Bullish Outlook :
In the weekly frame, Crude Oil could have terminated the decline of its Minor wave C, which started at the 112.24 high on August 2013, in the five waves of Minute degree.
The 37.75 could be a Significant low, as the extreme point of Minor wave C, that was registered a slightly lower than expected target at 41.58, However, the structure of decline in Minute fifth wave dose not look to be complete as a five-wave.
A five-wave advance of Minute degree is the wave structure that will indicate to change of the trend to up.
The Crude Oil has started the week in another strong rally, that would suggest to respect the possibility that 37.75 could be a low of more importance, which was registered a slightly lower than expected target at 41.58.
A five-wave advance of Minute degree is the wave structure that will confirm the trend change.
As shown on the chart, Crude has declined – exceeding the expectations – for straight weeks. But expect more decline, after a recovery, to complete the wave structure in five waves as Minute wave v (circle).
Note : The ultimate target will be determined after a correction of Minuette degree.
The Crude’s current decline indicates that based upon this weekly alternate count, a Minute fifth wave remains likely in progress before the Minor wave C of Intermediate wave (B) terminates.
The bearish outlook is through under the recent lows at $41.58, where fifth and first Minute waves of the wave C are equal.
Two alternate counts on these log scale weekly-frames :
- The bullish outlook in anticipated Intermediate wave (C) underway, while the Oil’s price holds above the 42.03 low, through the 92.94 area.
- The continuing bearish outlook on Intermediate wave (B) still underway, in anticipation of the Minute fifth wave ahead of Minor wave C, which remains in progress.